根据辽宁玉米主产区沈阳、铁岭、鞍山3市1980～2004年的农业气候资料及玉米产量资料，采用直线滑动平均模拟法分离出气象产量，并结合相关系数分析法初步分析了温度、降水两大气候因子与气象产量之间的关系。结果表明：生育期内降水对玉米气象产量影响最大，其次是≥0℃活动积温和极端温度；降水关键期在4～5月和7～8月，≥0℃活动积温关键期在7～8月；降水、活动积温过大和过小对玉米产量均不利；极端温度影响以最高温度影响较大，极端最低温度影响较小；极端最高温度发生几率逐年增加，极端最低温度出现的几率有减少趋势。

Based on Shenyang ,Tieling and Anshan agricultural climate information and maize production from 1980 to 2004, the straight line sliding in average model was used to separate the climatic yield, and the relation between the climate factors(temperature and the rainfall) and meteorological yield was analysed preliminarily. The result showed that the main factor of maize climatic yield was rainfall during the whole maize planting phase in Liaoning Province, the second factor was the accumulated temperature and the extreme temperature. The rainfall crucial phase was from July to August and from April to May. The accumulated temperature crucial phase was from July to August. The much or less rainfall and the much or less accumulated temperature were bad for maize meteorological yield. The effect of the extreme maximum temperature was greater, the effect of the extreme minimum temperature was smaller, the possibility of the extreme maximum temperature gradually rise, the possibility of extreme minimum temperature gradually reduced in Liaoning.

国家“十一五”科技支撑计划重大项目（2006）