基于反事实思维，利用2000-2020年中国14个省份的面板数据，采用广义合成控制法探究“价补分离”政策改革对玉米生产的影响效果。结果表明，“价补分离”政策的实施促使实施地区玉米产量增加了183.01万吨，增产贡献为6.69%。“价补分离”政策具有时空异质性，2016年政策增产贡献较2015年降低了82.7%，随后逐年提升，2019、2020年政策效果趋于稳定；因生产者补贴政策制定标准、补贴对象范围等不同，三个实施地区玉米生产者补贴政策对玉米生产的影响效果存在差异，增产效应由高到低依次为黑龙江、内蒙古、辽宁、吉林。基于此，提出政府与市场有机统一、细化补贴对象范围、实施差异化标准补贴的政策建议。

Based on counterfactual thinking, this paper used panel data of 14 provinces in China from 2000 to 2020 to explore the "Price-subsidy separation" policy on corn production by the GSCCM method. The results showed that the implementation of the "Price-subsidy separation" policy increased corn production by 1.83 million tons and contributed 6.69% to the increase. The "Price-subsidy separation" policy has Spatio-temporal heterogeneity. In 2016, the contribution of the policy to production increase decreased by 82.7% compared with 2015 and then increased year by year. In 2019 and 2020, the policy effect tended to be stable. Due to the differences in producer subsidy policy formulation standards and the scope of subsidy objects, the effects of producer subsidy policy on maize yield in the three implementing regions were different, and the increasing corn production effect was Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, and Jilin from high to low. Based on this, some policy suggestions were put forward. Including, the organic unification of government and market, detailing the scope of subsidy objects, and implementing differentiated standard subsidies.

国家自然科学基金项目（面上项目，重点项目，重大项目）