随着全球变暖，华北平原的可利用热量资源逐渐增加，同时近年来青贮玉米与籽粒玉米的需求量急剧增大，因此，青贮-籽粒双季玉米作为一种既可提高热量资源利用效率又可提升青贮玉米、籽粒玉米供给的种植模式，日益引起关注。为了解黄河下游地区的热量资源并设计青贮-籽粒新型双季玉米种植模式，本文基于位于黄河下游灌区的中科院禹城综合试验站1961~2020年逐日平均气温资料，对玉米可能生长期日数、初始日序、终止日序、活动积温、有效积温的历史趋势变化特征以及不同熟型青贮-籽粒玉米的组合模式进行系统分析和预测，并比较青贮-籽粒新型双季玉米种植模式与传统双季玉米种植模式。结果表明禹城地区玉米积温与可能生长期日数在近60年内的年际增加趋势显著，玉米可能生长季活动积温60年平均值为4613.5℃·d，增加趋势为51.6℃·d/10a（R2=0.22，p=0.00）；可能生长季天数60年平均值为216.6天，呈增加趋势，趋势为2.2d/10a（R2=0.18，p=0.07）；初始日序60年平均值为92（4月2日），呈提前趋势，为-1.3d/10a（R2=0.09，p=0.02）；终止日序60年平均值为307（11月3日），呈推迟趋势，趋势为0.8 d/10a(R2=0.18，p=0.00)。根据可利用热量资源与玉米品种熟型，禹城地区双季玉米适宜的种植模式为早熟青贮-早熟籽粒玉米、早熟青贮-中熟籽粒玉米、中熟青贮-早熟籽粒玉米，夏播籽粒玉米的可调整弹性播期（春播青贮玉米收获截止日期与夏播籽粒玉米播种起始日期的间隔）60年平均值分别为25.8天、18.3天、18.2天，均有显著增加趋势，增加趋势分别为1.9d/10a（R2=0.23，p=0.00）、1.8d/10a（R2=0.20，p=0.00）、2.0d/10a（R2=0.24，p=0.00）。2021~2050年增加了晚熟-中熟搭配模式；2051~2080年开始增加了晚熟-晚熟搭配模式。本文研究结果证明了黄河下游地区青贮-籽粒双季玉米种植模式具有较好的热量资源可行性，为根据不同气候年型选择适宜玉米熟型搭配及制定相应的管理措施提供理论依据，对该地区提高热量资源利用效率和周年产量具有现实指导意义。

With global warming, the available heat resources in North China Plain are gradually increasing. At the same time, the demand for silage corn and grain corn has increased sharply in recent years. Therefore, silage grain double cropping corn, as a planting mode that can not only improve the utilization efficiency of heat resources, but also improve the supply of silage corn and seed corn, has attracted more and more attention. In order to understand the heat resources in the lower reaches of the Yellow River and design a new double cropping corn planting model of silage grain. Based on the daily average temperature data of Yucheng comprehensive experimental station of Chinese Academy of Sciences located in the irrigation area of the lower Yellow River from 1961 to 2020, This paper systematically analyzes the historical trend change characteristics of the number of days in the possible growth period, the initial date sequence, the ending date sequence, the active accumulated temperature, and the effective accumulated temperature of corn, as well as the combination mode of different maturity types of silage grain corn, and compare the new dual season corn planting mode of silage grain corn with the traditional dual season corn planting mode..The results showed that the interannual increasing trend of accumulated temperature and days of possible growth period of Maize in Yucheng area was significant in recent 60 years. The 60 year average value of active accumulated temperature in possible growth season of maize was 4613.5℃·d, and the increasing trend was 51.6 ℃·d/10a (R2=0.22, p=0.00); The 60-year average value of the number of possible growing season days is 216.6 days, showing an increasing trend of 2.2d/10a (R2=0.18, p=0.07); The 60 year average value of the initial daily sequence is 92 (April 2), showing an advance trend of -1.3d/10a (R2=0.09, p=0.02); The 60 year average value of the termination date sequence is 307 (November 3), showing a delayed trend, with a trend of 0.8 d/10a (R2=0.18, p=0.00). According to the available heat resources and the maturity type of maize varieties, the suitable planting modes of double cropping Maize in Yucheng area are early silage early maturing grain maize, early silage Medium Maturing grain maize and medium silage early maturing grain maize. The 60-year average value of the adjustable elastic sowing period of summer sowing grain maize (the interval between the harvest deadline of spring sowing silage maize and the sowing start date of summer sowing grain maize) is 25.8 days, 18.3 days and 18.2 days respectively, There is a significant increasing trend, which is 1.9d/10a (R2=0.23, p=0.00), 1.8d/10a (R2=0.20, p=0.00) and 2.0d/10a (R2=0.24, p=0.00). From 2021 to 2050, the late mature medium mature matching mode was added; From 2051 to 1980, the late maturing late maturing matching mode was added. The results of this study prove that the silage grain double cropping maize planting model in the lower reaches of the Yellow River has good feasibility of heat resources, which provides a theoretical basis for selecting the appropriate maize maturity combination and formulating corresponding management measures according to different climatic year types, and has practical guiding significance for improving the utilization efficiency of heat resources and annual yield in this area.

国家自然科学基金项目（面上项目，重点项目，重大项目）