[关键词]
[摘要]
玉米价格形成机制改革改变了种植玉米的收益预期,剖析其对农地规模经营的影响,对完善农业支持政策和兼顾农地规模经营稳定发展意义重大。本文基于19个玉米主产省2008—2023数据,采用事件研究法分析玉米“价补分离”政策对农地规模经营的动态效应。研究结果表明:玉米“价补分离”政策导致农地规模化经营水平显著下降,政策效果存在滞后性,而且政策的负面效应存在波动,且呈持续增大的趋势。由此提出未来应利用农业保险缓解农产品价格形成机制改革对农民种粮收益的负面影响,完善生产者补贴政策、促进农民种粮节本增效,健全支持规模经营主体稳定发展的政策体系。
[Key word]
[Abstract]
Reforms to the corn price formation mechanism have altered expectations regarding the profitability of corn cultivation. Analyzing their impact on the scale of agricultural land operations is of significant importance for improving agricultural support policies and ensuring the stable development of agricultural land operations. This study utilizes data from 19 major corn-producing provinces from 2008 to 2023 and employs event study methods to analyze the dynamic effects of the corn “price-subsidy separation” policy(CPSSP) on the scale of agricultural land operations. The research findings indicate that :The CPSSP has led to a significant decline in the level of farmland scale operations, with policy effects exhibiting lagging effects. Additionally, the negative effects of the policy fluctuate and show a trend of continuous increase. Therefore, it is proposed that in the future, agricultural insurance should be utilized to mitigate the negative impacts of agricultural product price formation mechanism reforms
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[基金项目]
本文系国家资助博士后研究人员计划“农地适度规模经营与粮食安全协同的困境及路径研究”(编号:GZC20233088)、中国博士后科学基金资助“政策组合视角下玉米国际竞争力提升:效应评估、路径识别与策略优化”(编号:2024M753606)、国家自然科学“玉米临储政策取消背景下粮食种植户群体适应性调整及演化研究”(编号:71973138)、中国社会科学院博士后创新项目的阶段性成果。姜小鱼为本文通讯作者。