基于玉米主产区2008-2022年面板数据，采用断点回归设计方法，探讨化肥“零增长”政策对玉米秸秆还田的影响。研究结果表明，化肥“零增长”政策显著扩大了玉米秸秆还田面积，且该政策通过提高玉米机械化水平、减少化肥施用量以及环境规制的协同效应等途径，正向显著影响玉米秸秆还田。此外，化肥“零增长”政策在不同区域的效果存在显著差异，对北方春播玉米带玉米秸秆还田的促进作用最为明显，西北灌溉玉米带次之，黄淮海夏播玉米带较弱，对西南山地玉米带无显著影响。

This study employed a regression discontinuity design to investigate the impact of the “Zero Growth” policy on corn stalk return to the field, using panel data from 2008 to 2022 of major corn-producing regions. The results showed that the “Zero Growth” fertilizer policy significantly expanded the area of corn stalk return to the field. Moreover, the policy exerted a positive and statistically significant impact on corn stalk return to the field, which was attributed to the synergistic effects of improved corn mechanization level, reduced chemical fertilizer application rate, and environmental regulations. Furthermore, the impact of the “Zero Growth” fertilizer policy varied significantly across different regions. Specifically, the policy had the most significant promoting effect on corn stalk return to the field in the Northern Spring-Sown Corn Belt, followed by the Northwestern Irrigated Corn Belt. In contrast, the promoting effect was relatively weak in the Huanghuaihai Summer-Sown Corn Belt, while it had no significant impact on the Southwestern Mountainous Corn Belt.

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教育部人文社科规划项目(23JYA790027)