采用2010-2021年中国与12个玉米及替代品主要进口来源国面板数据，通过构建贸易引力模型探究国际关系对中国玉米进口来源多元化的影响。研究结果表明，代表国际关系的3个变量中，高层互访对中国玉米及替代品进口来源有显著正向影响，政治冲突、自由贸易协定签订的影响尚不显著，稳健性检验依旧支持此结论。此外，中国人均消费需求、进口来源国人均消费能力、“玉米生产者补贴+市场化收购价格”制度对中国玉米及替代品进口来源有显著正向影响。建议加快优化玉米进口来源、重视高层互访交流、积极推动签署自贸协定、发挥国内政策的实质性作用。

This article utilizes panel data from 2010 to 2021 of China and 12 major corn and substitute importing countries. By constructing a trade gravity model, it explores the impact of international relations on the diversification of China’s corn import sources. The study finds that high-level diplomatic visits significantly positively affect China’s corn and substitute imports, while the impact of political conflicts and the signing of free trade agreements are not significant, with robustness tests supporting this conclusion. China’s per capita consumption demand, the per capita consumption capacity of the importing countries, and the “Corn Producer Subsidies + Marketized Purchase Price” system all significantly positively impact China’s corn and substitute imports. Based on these findings, the article suggests accelerating the optimization of corn import sources, valuing high-level exchanges, actively promoting free trade agreements, and leveraging the substantial role of domestic policies.

S513

国家社会科学基金青年项目(18CJL040);辽宁省教育厅科学研究经费项目(WSNZK202004);辽宁省教育厅科学研究经费面上项目(LJKMR20221074)