黑龙江作为我国重要的玉米生产基地与输出基地，玉米产量与播种面积多年稳居全国第一。同时，黑龙江地区是气候变化的敏感区域，玉米受气候变化的影响复杂多变，对产量的影响具有不确定性。对于玉米不同生育期间的气候资源变化分析不够充分，制约着未来玉米的科学生产。因此，研究客观捕获2021-2050年玉米各生育期的气候资源变化，采用IPCC发布的高排放(RCP8.5)和中排放(RCP4.5)两种不同情景的日平均气温和降水，揭示气候变化影响玉米营养生长和生殖阶段的气候资源变化特征。结果表明，未来玉米出苗至抽雄期和抽雄至成熟期均呈缩短趋势，其中RCP8.5情景缩短更快。相同情景下，抽雄至成熟期缩短更多；各生育期中，RCP8.5情景下温度更高，增温速率也更快。相同情景下，抽雄至成熟期温度普遍更高。未来RCP4.5情景下水资源更为丰富，但时空分布也更为不均。

Heilongjiang is a region highly sensitive to climate change, introducing uncertainty in maize yield outcomes. Although many studies have been conducted on the impact of climate change on maize, there is insufficient analysis regarding climate resource changes during different growth stages of maize-an important index for maize production. This limitation hinders scientific advancements in maize production for future endeavors. Therefore, this study objectively quantified changes in climate resources during each growth stage of maize from 2021 to 2050 and elucidated the characteristics of these variations that impact both vegetative growth and reproductive stages. The results indicate a shortening trend in the emerging-tasseling and tasseling-maturity stages of maize, with a more pronounced shortening under the RCP8.5 scenario. Within each growth period, temperatures are expected to be higher, with faster warming rates under the RCP8.5 scenario, especially observed in the tasseling-maturity stage. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, water resources are anticipated to be more abundant but unevenly distributed both spatially and temporally.

S513.01

国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFD2300201)、黑龙江省自然科学基金项目(LH2021D020)、黑龙江省气象局科技创新发展项目